Unlike previous seasons, all eight BBL clubs are still mathematically in contention for a top-four finals position as the competition's business end approaches. 

Whilst their position on the ladder is not yet confirmed, both the Hobart Hurricanes and Sydney Sixers have cemented their finals spots. This leaves the remaining six clubs, including the current fourth-placed Brisbane Heat, to battle it out for the remaining two finals positions. 

After last night’s loss to the Adelaide Strikers, the Brisbane Heat sit in 4th on 7 points ahead of the Perth Scorchers, Melbourne Renegades (who have a game in hand), Adelaide Strikers and Melbourne Stars, all of who sit closely behind on 6 points.

Such is the closeness of the competition, the Heat - with significant results going their way - have a 0.03% chance of finishing as high as first OR in worst case, as low as eighth. 

The Heat return to the Gabba this Thursday with it all to play for, determined to secure their spot in the finals race. 

With nine games in the regular season remaining, here’s what needs to happen for the Heat to play finals in BBL|14 (As of writing Sunday 12th December 2024)

WIN! 

It’s a simple equation, win and we’re in!

In seasons past, a win rate of 50 per cent and a positive net-run-rate (NRR) has been enough for teams to make finals. With three wins (2 points for each win) and a washout to their name (1 point), if the Heat win their final two fixtures against the Hobart Hurricanes (Gabba) and Melbourne Renegades (Marvel) they will cement their position in the top four. 

But how high can we actually go? 

Feeling Greedy? What are the calculations for the Heat to finish 1st or 2nd?:

We have a 0.03% chance of finishing on top of the BBL14 table. Although it may seem unlikely, when there’s a will there’s a way and this is how it must unfold. Brisbane Heat must win both their remaining games against the Hobart Hurricanes and Melbourne Renegades convincingly to reach 11 points and significantly improve their rather poor net run rate. 

The Heat will also have to rely on both the Sydney Sixers and Hobart Hurricanes, who are both on 11 points, to lose all of their remaining matches and the Thunder to drop their game against the Perth Scorchers on Jan 13. Based on the remaining fixtures, if this scenario were to play out, the Brisbane Heat, Sydney Sixers, Hobart Hurricanes and Sydney Thunder would all finish on 11 points and the ladder position would be determined based on the team’s Net Run Rate (NRR). Outlining the importance of maintaining a positive NRR throughout the season. 

Therefore, to finish either FIRST or SECOND, we need:

• Sydney Sixers and Hobart Hurricanes to lose all their remaining fixtures

• Sydney Thunder to lose to the Scorchers and beat the Sixers 

• Heat to win both games against Hurricanes and Renegades CONVINCINGLY to boost NRR

The incentive to finish in the top two is massive in the Big Bash League. First and second-placed teams play off in a match dubbed The Qualifier, with the winner going straight through to a Grand Final on home soil. The loser gets a second chance the following week in The Challenger (Loser of 1v2 VS winner of 3v4). 

Ladder based on 1st place Scenario:

1. Brisbane Heat 11 Points

2. Sydney Sixers 11 Points

3. Hobart Hurricanes 11 points

4. Sydney Thunder 11 points

5. Perth Scorchers 10 points

6. Melbourne Stars 10 points

7. Melbourne Renegades 8 points

8. Adelaide Strikers 8 points. 

Third Place Scenario (HOME FINAL!)

Finishing first and second may seem far-fetched, so what does the third placed scenario look like??

Remember, TWO WINS, WE’RE IN!

The Heat have a slim but mathematical chance of finishing third this season. The third-place team will host The Knockout against the team who finishes 4th. The winner will advance to play in The Challenger meanwhile the loser will be eliminated from the competition. 

Scenario 1 | What Needs to play out: 

• Heat to win both games against Hobart Hurricanes and Melbourne Renegades to finish on 11 points. 

• Thunder to lose both fixtures against Perth Scorchers and Sydney Sixers. 

• Thunder could drop out of top 4 pending results from the bottom four teams.

Scenario 2: 

• Thunder wins 1 of their last two games to finish on 11 points. 

• Heat to win both games against Hobart Hurricanes and Melbourne Renegades CONVINCINGLY to boost NRR and jump the Sydney Thunder. 

• The Thunder remain in the top 4. (Sixers, Hobart, Heat, Thunder)

If the Thunder were to lose their final two games and finish on 9 points, they would drop out of the top 4 if any of the Scorchers, Renegades, Strikers or Stars were to win both their final matches. They would finish on 10 competition points behind the Heat in third on 11. 

Ladder based on Scenario 1:

1. Sydney Sixers 15 Points

2. Hobart Hurricanes 13 Points

3. Brisbane Heat 11 points 

4. Perth Scorchers 10 points

5. Melbourne Renegades 10 points

6. Sydney Thunder 9 points

7. Melbourne Stars 6 points

8. Adelaide Strikers 6 points. 

4th Place Scenario 

The Brisbane Heat’s most likely scenario for making finals is finishing 4th on 11 points. 

If the Brisbane Heat win their final two games they DO NOT need other results to go their way in order to make finals. 

Two wins places the team on 11 points, which means despite the Perth Scorchers, Melbourne Stars and Adelaide Strikers winning their final remaining games, they will finish on 10 points, one behind the Heat. 

Scared about the Renegades game in hand?? Don’t be. 

If the renegades win both their matches against the Melbourne Stars and Hobart Hurricanes, they too will be on 10 points which means it’s going to be an ALL TO PLAY FOR FINALS MATCHUP against the Brisbane Heat on January 18. 

WINNER PLAYS FINALS. 

Ladder based on 4th placed scenario: 

1. Hobart Hurricanes 15 points

2. Sydney Sixers 13 points

3. Sydney Thunder 11 points

4. Brisbane Heat 11 points

5. Perth Scorchers 10 points

6. Melbourne Renegades 10 points

7. Adelaide Strikers 6 points

8. Melbourne Stars 6 points 

Lots to take in! So, let's recap.

It’s a simple equation right? Win and we’re in!

• If the Brisbane Heat win their next two games against the Hobart Hurricanes and Melbourne Renegades they will finish as low as fourth, cementing their BBL14 finals campaign. 

• There is still a mathematical chance for the Brisbane Heat to finish as high as FIRST, pending results from the Hobart Hurricanes, Sydney Sixers and Sydney Thunder. 

• If the Heat lose any of their two final matches, their chances of playing finals deteriorates quickly! Whilst mathematically still a chance, we would be relying on other results to find our way into the finals 

So let’s not talk about that scenario just yet….

Still confused? Let’s break it down to a game-by-game scenario on what needs to happen for the Heat to finish as high on the ladder as possible.  

Fixtures 

Date	Fixture	Brisbane Heat Favoured Result
Jan 12	Melbourne Renegades vs Melbourne Stars	Melbourne Stars
Jan 13	Sydney Thunder vs Perth Scorchers	Perth Scorchers
Jan 14	Hobart Hurricanes vs Melbourne Renegades	Hobart Hurricanes
Jan 15	Adelaide Strikers vs Sydney Sixers	Adelaide Strikers
Jan 16	Brisbane Heat vs Hobart Hurricanes	Brisbane Heat
Jan 17	Sydney Sixers vs Sydney Thunder	Sydney Thunder
Jan 18	Melbourne Renegades vs Brisbane Heat	Brisbane Heat
Jan 19	Melbourne Stars vs Hobart Hurricanes	Melbourne Stars